Future climate change in the Northern Indian Ocean as simulated with a high-resolution regional earth system model

Abstract This study examines the future climate change in South Asia region during 2070–2099 with respect to historical period (1975–2004) under RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional earth system model. We found substantial changes key climatic parameters over including ocean biological productivity, however, magnitude of response varies spatially. A increase (> 2.5 °C) projected annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) was Indian Ocean highest (~ 3.4 locally northern part Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf, SST being significant throughout area 95% confidence level. The salinity showed strong spatial variability freshening Bay Bengal Gulf followed by Sea. amount precipitation will substantially eastern coast (up 1.5–2.0 mm/day) along equator band 10° S–10° N (0.5–1.5 mm/day), while it decrease western states India (− 0.5 1.0 mm/day). most pronounced rate occur (3–5 coasts 5 monsoon period, equatorial (2–3 post-monsoon all indicated above at